Why to Invest in Hedge Funds

“Higher the risk, higher the return; lower the risk, lower the Return”. This is the first concept of Investment you come across whether you are a seasoned investor or a newbie while talking to any adviser or participating in any investors’ education programme.

For many years, investors have been told that risk and return are correlated. Low levels of uncertainty (low risk) are associated with low potential returns. High levels of uncertainty (high risk) are associated with high potential returns. The risk/return trade-off is the balance between the desire for the lowest possible risk and the highest possible return. This whole idea is graphically illustrated here and we are sure each one of us must have seen this graph at least once in our lifetime.

risk-return

This graph depicts the idea beautifully but there is one flaw. The Risk-Return trade-off line is not a straight line in real life. That is, the return per unit of risk is not constant. More risk will not necessarily bring you more return and the return per unit of risk start diminishing as you take more and more risk. This is the second concept of Investment called Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility.

‘Utility’ is a term used in economics to describe how much value or happiness one derives from a good or service. Marginal utility refers to how much additional value/happiness is derived from one additional unit of the good or service. Most goods and services are said to have “diminishing marginal utility.”

Diminishing marginal utility‘ can be understood by this simple example – If you are hungry, you will relish your first dosa, you may eat your second dosa but very few of us will enjoy the third one. As our hunger satiates after the first one, our urge to eat another dosa diminishes though the taste of each dosa is the same.

More risk can’t generate a proportionate higher return and it’s a fact of life that markets fluctuate and unpredictable. But occasionally markets experience bouts of extreme volatility and declines, which can wreak havoc on portfolios. Statistics over the last 20 years show 5% pullbacks typically happen about two to three times a year, 10% to 15% corrections every one to two years and 20% bear drops every three to five years and over 50% once in a decade.

It’s easy to ride out small fluctuations given a long time horizon. But with rare large declines, most investors get perturbed by the mark to market loss and allow the behaviour aspect rode over the fundamental aspect of investment. It would be better having a bit of protection or hedge — either for peace of mind or for performance. This concept of Investment is called Hedging, which can be achieved by buying derivative to protect your long position. This cost reduces your return in an up swinging market but protect you from draw downs and generate better risk adjusted return.

Hedging risk has been an integral part of the financial markets for centuries. One of the more notable early successes came in the 17th Century when commodity producers and merchants devised a way to protect themselves against unfavorable price changes through a system of ‘forward contracts’.

Another aspect of hedging is Arbitrage. Arbitrage is a strategy where you try to capture the price difference of stock, commodity, etc in two different markets by buying in one and selling in another simultaneously. This is a market neutral strategy and you are not concern about the market direction. In India, you profit by exploiting the price differences by buying in the cash market and selling in the future market. Subsequently, you square up the trade on or before the expiry of future contract to realise the gain.

The term ‘hedge fund‘, however, dates back only to 1949. At that time, almost all investment strategies took only long positions. Alfred Winslow Jones, a reporter for Fortune, published an article arguing that investors could achieve far better returns if hedging became an integral part of an investment strategy. Jones launched a small investment partnership to test his belief. He incorporated two investment tools into his strategy – short selling and leverage – to simultaneously limit market risk and magnify returns.

As an Indian, we have historically invested in long-only strategies, be it Stocks, Mutual funds, PMS or Insurance. Since the naked short sale is not permitted in any of these investment avenues, we never benefited like global investors and fund managers who take advantage of mispricing, overvaluation, and euphoria in the markets to make investment returns by shorting a stock. This strategy yields sizable returns in bearish markets, where the share prices take a plunge.

A long-short strategy is used primarily by hedge funds, seek to deliver positive returns with low correlation to equity markets by taking long positions in stocks whose prices are expected to rise and short positions in stocks that are expected to decline.

The fund manager take a long position in a stock by buying it: If the stock price rises, the fund will make money. For shorting a stock, fund either uses the derivatives or borrows the stock they don’t own, sell it and then hoping it declines in value and then buy it back at a lower price and return the borrowed shares.

The Indian equity market is more volatile than US, European and other major Asian markets. Higher Volatility in the market couple with Lower Correlation and Higher Dispersion among Indian stocks provides an opportunity to generate alpha through active management of long and short positions.

Hedge funds profit from winners and losers both by taking long positions in winning stocks and short positions in losing stocks; it reduces the volatility and limits max draw down.

Structure of Hedge Funds in India

Hedge Funds in India are category III Alternative Investment Fund governs by SEBI (Alternative Investment Funds) Regulations, 2012 (“AIF Regulations”).

Alternative Investment Fund or AIF are privately pooled investment vehicle which collects funds from sophisticated investors, whether Indian or foreign, for investing it in accordance with a defined investment policy for the benefit of its investors.

Specific exclusions include family trusts, employee stock option trusts, employee welfare trusts or gratuity trusts, holding companies, special purpose vehicles not established by fund managers and regulated under a specific regulatory framework (eg. securitization trusts), and funds managed by registered securitisation or reconstruction companies.

An AIF under the SEBI (Alternative Investment Funds) Regulations, 2012 can be established or incorporated in the form of a trust or a company or a limited liability partnership or a body corporate. Most of the AIFs registered with SEBI are in trust form.

Category I AIFs

AIFs which invest in start-up or early stage ventures or social ventures or SMEs or infrastructure or other sectors or areas which the government or regulators consider as socially or economically desirable and shall include venture capital funds, SME Funds, social venture funds, infrastructure funds and such other Alternative Investment Funds as may be specified.

“Angel fund” is a sub-category of Venture Capital Fund under Category I Alternative Investment Fund that raises funds from angel investors and invests in accordance with the provisions of AIF Regulations.

Category II AIFs

AIFs which do not fall in Category I and III and which do not undertake leverage or borrowing other than to meet day-to-day operational requirements. Various types of funds such as real estate funds, private equity funds (PE funds), funds for distressed assets, etc. are registered as Category II AIFs.

Category III AIFs

AIFs which employ diverse or complex trading strategies and may employ leverage including through investment in listed or unlisted derivatives. Various types of funds such as hedge funds, PIPE Funds, etc. are registered as Category III AIFs.

There is no exact definition for the term “Hedge Fund”; but it is generally accepted that any investment fund that used incentive fees, short selling, and leverage are hedge funds. However, there are many category III AIF which are not utilizing the hedging and arbitrage strategies and are engage in relatively traditional, long-only strategies.

The eligibility criteria and conditions for Hedge funds in India are:

  • Investors can be Indian, NRI or foreign.
  • Only spouse, parents and children can be a joint investor.
  • Minimum corpus should be Rs. 20 Crores for each scheme.
  • Minimum investment by each investor should be Rs. 1 Crore.
  • The Maximum number of investors can be 1000 for each scheme.
  • Category III AIFs can be both open and close ended.
  • The manager or sponsor shall have a continuing interest in the respective AIF, (a) of not less than 5% of the corpus (in Category III), or (b) Rs. 10 Crores (for each scheme) whichever is lower.
  • Leverage of a Category III AIF cannot exceed 2 times the NAV of the fund.
  • Units of close-ended AIFs may be listed on stock exchange, subject to a minimum tradable lot of Rs. 1 Crore and such listing of AIF is permitted only after the final close of the fund or scheme.

Reference

  1. AIF Regulation
  2. AIF FAQ
  3. Registered AIF
  4. The Indian Association of Alternative Investment Funds (IAAIF)

White Paper – Asset Allocation

“Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket”. It means don’t risk everything all at once. If you had a certain number of “eggs”, it would be safest to put those eggs in different “baskets” and not “put them all in one basket”. To “put all your eggs in one basket” would be to risk losing all of your “eggs” in case you drop that one “basket”.

Even if you are new to investing, this old adage explain you the most fundamental principles of sound investing. If that makes sense, you’ve got a great start on understanding asset allocation and diversification.

Studies have shown that proper asset allocation is more important to long-term returns than specific investment choices or market timing. Asset allocation means diversifying your money among different types of investment categories, such as stocks, bonds, and cash. The goal is to help reduce risk and enhance returns.

The process of determining asset mix in your portfolio is a personal choice. The asset allocation that works best for you at any given point in your life will depend largely on your time horizon and your ability to tolerate risk.

Time Horizon – Your time horizon is the expected number of months, years, or decades you will be investing to achieve a particular financial goal. An investor with a longer time horizon may feel more comfortable taking on a riskier, or more volatile, investment because he or she can wait out slow economic cycles and the inevitable ups and downs of our markets. By contrast, an investor saving up for a teenager’s college education would likely take on less risk because he or she has a shorter time horizon.

Risk Tolerance – Risk tolerance is your ability and willingness to lose some or all of your original investment in exchange for greater potential returns. An aggressive investor, or one with a high-risk tolerance, is more likely to risk losing money in order to get better results. A conservative investor, or one with a low-risk tolerance, tends to favour investments that will preserve his or her original investment. Check your risk tolerance here.

The two most commonly used terms when referring to asset allocation are strategic and tactical asset allocation.

Strategic (or neutral) asset allocation refers to the neutral asset allocation that aims to achieve the investor’s long-term investment objectives. It is based on the longer-term risk and return outlook for the asset classes.

Tactical (or dynamic) asset allocation aims to take advantage of perceived inefficiencies in asset pricing in the short-term. The deviation from the Strategic asset allocation is done with the aim to enhance returns in the shorter term. The decision rule that defines how the Tactical asset allocation is implemented could be different for each investor.

Every investor or portfolio has a Strategic asset allocation that is used to model the returns that the investor is likely to achieve in the long-term.

Based on data since 1997 and Risk Tolerance level, we have created five model strategic asset allocations using reverse optimization process through gradient quadratic programming method of Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe.

  1. Conservative Asset Allocation – Equity: 1.6%, Debt: 79.1%, cash: 19.3%
  2. Moderately Conservative Asset Allocation – Equity: 6.4%, Debt: 93.6%, cash: 0.00%
  3. Moderate Asset Allocation – Equity: 23.9%, Debt: 76.1%, cash: 0.00%
  4. Moderately Aggressive Asset Allocation – Equity: 33.9%, Debt: 66.1%, cash: 0.00%
  5. Aggressive Asset Allocation – Equity: 44.0%, Debt: 56.0%, cash: 0.00%

You can check these models here.

We use another reverse optimization model – Black Litterman model to arrive at the tactical asset allocation. Though Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz’s mean-variance optimization is one of the cornerstones of modern portfolio theory and has become the dominant asset allocation model. However,

  1. Mean-variance optimization is very sensitive to the estimates of returns, standard deviations, and correlations. Of these three inputs, returns are by far the most important and, unfortunately, the least stable.
  2. Input sensitivity indicates that the model’s output (the asset allocations) changes significantly due to small changes in the input (the capital market assumptions). Input sensitivity causes mean-variance optimization to lead to highly concentrated asset allocations.

The Black-Litterman model was created by Fischer Black and Robert Litterman. The Black-Litterman model enables investors to combine their unique views regarding the performance of various assets with CAPM market equilibrium returns in a manner that results in intuitive, diversified portfolios. More specifically, the Black-Litterman Model combine the subjective views of an investor regarding the expected returns of one or more assets with the CAPM market equilibrium expected returns (the prior distribution) to form a new, mixed estimate of expected returns (the posterior distribution).

The CAPM market equilibrium returns are calculated using the reverse optimization technique described by Sharpe. You can see the tactical asset allocation area graph based on risk tolerance here.

Our five-step asset allocation process:

  1. Establish a Strategic (long term) allocation
    1. You need to know the Risk Tolerance Score
    2. And to align with one of the five Market Portfolios based on risk tolerance
    3. Market portfolios are your reference point for monitoring deviation from your risk profile.
  1. Shift your asset allocation away from strategic allocation only when there are “valuation” opportunities:
    1. When one asset class is extremely undervalued relative to competing asset classes
    2. When we can make high-confidence assessments of the impact of cyclical factors that might enhance or detract from such opportunities
  1. Analyse and choose actively managed mutual funds, and in some cases Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), to implement your asset allocation. Use the Fund Screener to select the top-rated Schemes. Choosing more schemes leads to greater diversification, but avoid unnecessary diversification. Eliminate any schemes you do not want to own for any reason; however, you should keep at least 20 schemes in an effort to properly manage risk.
  1. Hold for at least One year – For better Tax Efficiency
    1. In our opinion, it is a better idea to keep your investment for approximately one year. This to maximize your after-tax returns; therefore, holds the gains for more than a year to become long-term, and book any losses before the one year holding period is reached.
  1. Go Back to Step 1
    1. Once you have sold any gains and any losses, select and purchase a new portfolio by following step 1 to 3.

Conclusion

The greatest asset allocation strategy won’t work if you can’t control your behaviour. That’s one of the biggest reasons keeping your disciplined investment strategy as simple as possible. The truth, that long-term investing after fees and taxes beats active wealth management, is hard to accept.

It’s much easier to control how you behave with a simple strategy since you won’t be tempted to jump in and out of the market or find the next best investment trend.  And basing your decisions on complex and structured products won’t keep you in your plan when turmoil hits.

Attachment

  1. Reverse Optimization aa_gradient_tgblog
  2. Black-Litterman Model aa_bl_tgblog

Acknowledgment (For idea, content, formula and calculation)

  1. http://www.blacklitterman.org and the reading list published on the website.
  2. Macro-Investment Analysis by William F. Sharpe
  3. Financial Modeling by Simon Beninga